Liebe Leser,
Zum ersten Mal seit einem Jahrzehnt schlug der Aktienmarkt einen anderen Ton an. In den letzten zehn Jahren war der Markt Walking on Sunshine.
In den letzten Monaten wurde dieser Ton schnell zu Doom and Gloom. Das Ende des Jahres 2018 sandte ein alarmierendes und beunruhigendes Signal an alle am Markt: seid vorsichtig.
Der Markt geriet nicht nur in Bären-Territorium, sondern wir schlossen das Jahr auch mit dem schlechtesten Dezember für Aktien seit der Great Depression ab.
Und zum ersten Mal seit 2008 beendete der S&P 500 das Jahr im Minus. Sogar Google-Suchen nach „recession“ stiegen im Dezember sprunghaft an. Ach, und vergessen wir nicht, dass Aktien seit fast 20 Jahren kein Jahr so schlecht begonnen haben.
Glücklicherweise waren wir vorbereitet.
Heute möchte ich meine frühen Prognosen für 2019 teilen: was zu erwarten ist, worauf man achten sollte und, am wichtigsten, wie man in diesen unsicheren Zeiten investiert.
Ein Gruß aus der Vergangenheit
In unserer Ausgabe vom April 2018 ermöglichte uns unsere Analyse, den bevorstehenden Schmerz zu erkennen – aber nicht, bevor wir die kurzfristigen Marktgewinne genutzt hatten.
Via „ Steht der Markt vor dem Kollaps?“:
„…Der S&P 500 ist über 9 % von seinen 2018er-Höchstständen im Januar (2018) gefallen – eine Zahl, die bei vielen Anlegern Marktunruhen ausgelöst hat, insbesondere da Aktien im Jahr 2017 jeden Monat gestiegen waren.“
Doch anstatt zu fliehen, nannte ich Gründe, warum der Markt noch Raum zum Wachsen hatte.
„…Bevor wir jedoch von Untergangsstimmung sprechen, ist es wichtig zu beachten, dass der S&P 500 seit Jahresbeginn (TYD) nur um 2,58 % gefallen ist.
…Die Gewinne im ersten Quartal werden voraussichtlich stark sein – so stark, dass Analysten rekordhohe Steigerungen der S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS)-Schätzungen sowohl für das erste Quartal als auch für das bisherige Jahr 2018 verzeichnet haben.
…laut FactSet verzeichnete das erste Quartal 2018 den größten Anstieg der Bottom-up-EPS-Schätzung in den ersten zwei Monaten eines Quartals, seit FactSet im zweiten Quartal 2002 mit der Verfolgung der vierteljährlichen Bottom-up-EPS-Schätzung begann.
…die
geschätzte Gewinnwachstumsrate für den S&P 500 im ersten Quartal beträgt 17,2 %. Wenn
diese Schätzungen sich als richtig erweisen, wird dies das höchste Gewinnwachstum
pro Quartal seit sieben Jahren markieren, als wir im ersten Quartal 2011 19,5 % erreichten. Der
S&P 500 ist nach dem Ende des ersten Quartals 2011 um über 95 % gestiegen.
…von den 11.094 Ratings für Aktien im S&P 500, die FactSet verfolgt, sind 52,2 % Buy ratings, 42,9 % Hold ratings und 4,9 % Sell ratings.
…diese Zahlen zeigen, dass der Markt trotz der Unsicherheiten im Grunde solide bleibt.
Glaube ich, dass wir einen weiteren Gewinn von 100 % vor uns haben? Natürlich nicht.
Aber ich glaube nicht, dass es schon Zeit für übereilte Entscheidungen ist.
Behalten Sie die Gewinne in den kommenden Wochen im Auge – wenn sie weit unter den Erwartungen liegen, ist ernsthafte Vorsicht geboten. Wenn sie die Erwartungen erfüllen oder übertreffen, ist kurzfristig ein Aufatmen angesagt.“
Und dieses Aufatmen folgte diesem Brief, als die Gewinne insgesamt stark blieben.
Der S&P 500 stieg dann von 2581,88 Anfang April auf ein Hoch von 2940,91 im September.
Doch so wie ich andeutete, dass der Markt nach dem katastrophalen Start ins Jahr 2018 noch Raum zum Steigen hatte, schlug ich auch vor, dass wir uns im dritten Quartal aufgrund des Wettbewerbs um Kapital und der Kausalität der Inflation infolge von Trumps Politik viel vorsichtiger verhalten sollten.
„…Kapital befindet sich immer in einem Zustand des ewigen Wettbewerbs. Angesichts des erwarteten Überangebots an US bond supply auf dem Markt werden wahrscheinlich bessere bond terms erforderlich sein, um um Kapital zu konkurrieren – insbesondere da yields immer noch nahe an Allzeittiefs liegen.
Das bedeutet, dass yields irgendwann steigen müssen. Laienhaft ausgedrückt, müssen interest rates steigen. Und wenn interest rates steigen, wird Kapital von den equity markets auf den bond market verlagert.
…Der Konsens unter bond experts ist, dass yields steigen werden, aber sie müssen langsam steigen, da sowohl die US- als auch die globalen economies zu highly leveraged sind, um einen rapid rise in rates zu verkraften.
Besonders wenn inflation endlich wieder auf der Tagesordnung steht…
…Im Februar erlebten wir die Veröffentlichung eines sehr robusten jobs report, der zeigte, dass wages im Januar um 2,9 percent year-over-year gestiegen sind.
Dies war der größte Anstieg seit 2009 und bekräftigt weiter, dass die US economy tatsächlich an Stärke gewinnt.
Leider, obwohl dieses growth eine gute Sache ist, übt es pressure auf den stock market aus.
Das liegt daran, dass diese economic strength einen natural upward force auf interest rates und bond yields ausübt, da sie der Fed den Weg ebnet, zu tighten und rates zu increase.
Wir erlebten dies im Januar aus erster Hand, als der Consumer Price Index, ein key indicator of inflation trends, weit über den Erwartungen lag und um 0,5 percent sprang. Dies führte sofort zu higher bond yields und lower stock prices. In einem normal market, growth sollte zu higher stock prices führen.
Im heutigen Fed-supported market hat dies jedoch den opposite effect.
… As inflation rises, long-term bond yields will have to keep up in order to give investors a real rate of return (a return that factors inflation).
With inflation now steadily rising above 2%, combined with an increasing supply of US bonds, long-term bond yields should move closer to 5%; giving investors a real rate of return in the vicinity of 3%.
These expected rise in yields could be the beginning of a bigger shift from stocks to bonds and stagnate the growth of the stock market. We should be more cautious of this event in Q3 and Q4.
… That’s why over the next few months, I’ll be adding big positions to my portfolio in hopes of hitting that grand slam before Q3/Q4 is here.”
Und ich habe sicherlich einige big positions hinzugefügt, darunter eine stock, die ich zu einem price of C$3.65 einführte und die vor Q3 auf über $10 per share stieg – a potential gain of over 175% in just a few short months.
Mein Ziel, die Ausgabe vom April 2018 erneut aufzugreifen, ist nicht, die accuracy of my prediction zu preisen oder Ihnen zu zeigen, how we were able to make big profits during a time of uncertainty; it’s to show you how we can take those same cues into 2019 and win.
Worauf man 2019 achten sollte
Die Konvergenz von Zins- und Arbeitslosenquoten
Despite the concerns of a trade war and other global issues, 2018’s late stock market declines were generally driven by inflation and interest rate concerns – which we highlighted as the key indicators for capital competition.
In 2019, these concerns will likely remain the key driver for stocks and bonds, and we should be watching them closely.
But outside of the shift from equity to bonds, there’s another indicator we should be aware of this year: the convergence of the inflation and unemployment rates.
When unemployment and inflation rates converge – when they become the same number – it’s often a sign of an overheating economy; one that historically marks the beginning of a prolonged downturn for stocks, followed by a recession a year later.
Right now, the gap between unemployment and inflation is around 1% in developed countries like Japan, the UK, Germany, and the all-important United States.
In other words, if the Fed maintains its “not so many rate hikes” in 2019, but unemployment continues to get better, we could be looking at a very slow 2019 for stocks, followed by a potential recession in 2020.
And while the U.S. economy is strong, a downward shift in stocks can immediately send the economy reeling back.
Verbrauchervertrauen
Wenn das Verbrauchervertrauen sinkt, tun dies fast immer auch die Aktien.
Last year, the consumer confidence September’s index print hit 138.4, nearing the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000, according to the Conference Board.
So it’s no surprise that stocks also hit their 2018 highs in September.
But shortly after, consumer confidence began to dip – and in lock-step, so did stocks.
In December, consumer confidence dipped again, leading to the worst December for stocks since the Great Depression – showing just how volatile our market can be.
In other words, we should keep a monthly tab on the consumer confidence reports as there is a reasonably high correlation between the stock market and consumer confidence.
Regierungsprobleme
Im März wird wahrscheinlich die debt ceiling reinstatement.
What’s the debt ceiling?
Von Wikipedia:
„In the United States, the federal government can pay for expenditures only if Congress has approved the expenditure in an appropriation bill. If the proposed expenditure exceeds the revenues that have been collected, there is a deficit or shortfall, which can only be financed by the government, through the Department of the Treasury, borrowing the shortfall amount by the issue of debt instruments. Under federal law, the amount that the government can borrow is limited by the debt ceiling, which can only be increased with a separate vote by Congress.”
In other words, the debt ceiling is often used as a bargaining tool for political advances when the House and Senate are controlled by two different parties, since an increase in the debt ceiling requires approval of both the House and the Senate. The last time we had a gridlock between the two parties over the debt ceiling was in 2011.
After many months, the parties finally agreed to raise the debt ceiling. But this Brinksmanship led to a U.S. debt downgrade for the first time in history, sending the market down nearly 20% – a baby bear market, if you will.
If the government can’t sort out their issues, we could be in store for some significant volatility in Q2 that could also lead to a baby bear market.
Around the same time, we have the ceasefire deadline in the trade war between China and the U.S. Both countries would fair better if the two can come to an official agreement, but taming two alpha males on a world stage is not an easy task. And don’t think for one second that China won’t use the debt ceiling deadline to its advantage.
The timing of both the trade war and debt ceiling deadlines will further add to the instability of the market in Q2. That means cash is king and will once again be considered a strong asset class in 2019. But that doesn’t mean we should run..
Ein optimistischer Ausblick
Despite a weak December performance and a drop in consumer confidence, the shopping season was a rather robust one, with Mastercard saying it had its best season in six years.
Meanwhile, US job creation ended 2018 very strong, with nonfarm payrolls surging by 312,000 in December.
Via CNBC:
„Job creation ended 2018 on a powerful note, with nonfarm payrolls surging by 312,000 in December though the unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent.
The jobless rate, which was last higher in June, rose for the right reason as 419,000 new workers entered the workforce and the labor force participation rate increased to 63.1 percent. The participation level was up 0.2 percentage points from November and 0.4 percentage points compared with a year earlier.”
In other words, with the Fed looking to calm interest rate hikes in 2019 and unemployment rate slightly rising (for the better), the convergence of interest rates and unemployment moves further apart – potentially signaling a little more room for stocks to climb.
With the recent market correction, the S&P forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio in December dropped to 14.2, according to FactSet – lower than both the 5-year average (16.4) and 10-year average (14.6).
Lastly, a positive outcome on the trade war could help bolster the market – as could a positive outcome on the debt ceiling.
Ich suspect the market to be optimistic in the short-term, but how long this rebound lasts remains to be seen.
Keep this in mind for Q1.
Ein großes Jahr für Europa
While the market is focused on the trade war between the U.S. and China, we certainly shouldn’t forget about Europe.
That’s because we are going to witness a record year for political changes in one of the world’s largest economies.
In March, the UK is expected to leave the European Union (EU) officially.
Shortly after, the EU will be electing a new Parliament, followed in the summer with the appointment of a new President.
Then in the fall, the 8-year run of Mario Draghi as President of the European Central Bank (ECB) will be over, and a new president will be selected.
All of these political events could have wide spreading implications for global markets. For example, what if the new head of the ECB is strongly opposed to loose monetary policy?
Outside of interest rates, the debt ceiling, and the trade war, we should be keeping a very close eye on Europe.
Fazit
I would never suggest being completely in or out, of any market. By taking the cues from 2018 into 2019, I believe there is still ample room to profit.
Es muss jedoch richtig getimt werden.
For example, I continued to add big positions following the small dip in Q1 of 2018 but pulled out a large chunk before Q3 based on market events that I outlined in my April 2018 edition. In hindsight, I probably should have pulled out more – but profits are profits.
In 2019, I could see a very volatile Q2.
That means one could invest now, pull out before Q2, and then buy back once the debt ceiling and trade war issues are sorted out.
Outside of the complexities in March and Q2, history is somewhat in our favour when it comes to stock market performance.
Stocks are not only cheaper now than they have been in the last 10 years from a P/E ratio perspective, but the S&P 500 has only declined in back-to-back years four times since 1929.
And while the Fed and other central banks are on a tightening path, China is more than willing to do the opposite.
For example, it just lowered the level of cash that banks must hold as reserves to boost liquidity and support private companies caught between the U.S. trade war and Beijing’s deleveraging effort.
Via die Nikkei:
„The 1-percentage-point cut to reserve requirement ratios marks the first such move since October, and focuses attention on whether the People’s Bank of China will next lower policy interest rates — something it has not done since fall 2015.
The reserve ratio cut, which is expected to free up a net 800 billion yuan (US$116 billion) for banks to channel into financing, shows Chinese authorities taking a more accommodative monetary policy stance than in 2018 as trade tensions add to the pressure on the economy.
The PBOC said in a statement accompanying Friday’s decision that it will “continuously implement prudent monetary policy,” dropping the word “neutral” used when it cut reserve requirements in October. The omission, which indicates a looser stance, follows a decision by the Central Economic Work Conference — an annual meeting of top policymakers — to delete the term in December.”
In other words, what may appear shaky at first could turn into prime trading opportunities if we’re cashed up.
Last year, we were able to profit despite all of the uncertainties in the market.
We just had a fairly big win on our most recent idea first introduced in September, and I suspect we may have another leg up from here with the recent downturn.
I am looking to introduce another opportunity to profit in these times of uncertainty – very similar to the structure of the great trade we experienced last year that led to a potential 175% win in just a few short months.
Be sure to keep an eye on your inbox as timing is everything in this market.
Suchen Sie die Wahrheit,
Ivan Lo
The Equedia Letter
Offenlegung:
Equedia.com und Equedia Network Corporation sind nicht als investment advisers, broker-dealers oder other securities professionals mit any financial or securities regulatory authority registriert. Remember, past performance is not indicative of future performance. This article also contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements made in this article. Just because many of the companies in our previous Equedia Reports have done well, doesn’t mean they all will.
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