On Tuesday, September 15, 2026, Reuters put a question to Ammar Al-Joundi, the chief executive of Agnico Eagle, that every gold investor has been asking since December.
Would Agnico buy into Barrick's North American IPO?
His answer, via Reuters:
"It would not make sense for us to buy into their North America IPO."
Then he said the part that should give every Barrick shareholder pause: it is not a question of valuation, or of whether the deal is a good one. Agnico has its own business, and that business "is looking pretty good."
Think about what he was turning down.
Barrick is carving out its stakes in Carlin, Cortez and Turquoise Ridge in Nevada, its Pueblo Viejo mine in the Dominican Republic and the Fourmile discovery it calls one of the most significant gold finds of this century, and listing them in New York as a pure play gold company. The most disciplined large gold miner on the continent, sitting on $3.3 billion of net cash, was offered a look at that portfolio and shrugged.
So the question we want to answer today is simple: if Agnico does not want a piece of Barrick's best mines at any price, who does, and what does that tell you about the stock you own?
What Barrick Is Actually Selling
Let's start with the documents, because the whole IPO rests on three of them.
On December 1, 2025, Barrick's board authorised management to explore a listing of a new company holding its North American gold assets, through "an initial public offering of a small minority interest", with Barrick keeping "a significant controlling majority interest."
On April 28, 2026, Barrick named the team and the structure: a primary listing in New York, a secondary one in Toronto, and completion "by the end of 2026." Those assets produced roughly 2.0 million ounces of attributable gold in 2025, which is close to two thirds of the 2.90 to 3.25 million ounces Barrick has guided for the whole company this year.
And on the earnings call in February, chief executive Mark Hill put a number on the float. Via Reuters, 10% to 15% of the new company would be sold, and Barrick would keep the rest.
Analysts quoted by Reuters value the North American business at around $42 billion. Ten to fifteen per cent of that is $4.2 billion to $6.3 billion of new stock. For scale, Bloomberg put Barrick's entire market value at $72 billion on September 2, so by the analysts' arithmetic the business being listed accounts for close to 58% of the parent.
In other words, Barrick is asking the market to write a separate price tag for the majority of its earnings, then hold that tag up against the parent and notice the gap.
Chairman John Thornton said as much at the annual meeting in May, as reported by the Financial Post:
"The market can value the assets directly, and since Barrick will retain a substantial majority interest, all of our investors can benefit."
That is the pitch. Now look at who has said no to it.
The Partner Who Holds the Keys
The first objection came from inside Nevada.
Nevada Gold Mines is a joint venture in which Barrick owns 61.5% and operates the mines, while Newmont owns 38.5%. In January, Reuters read the joint venture agreement filed with the SEC and found two clauses that decide who can ever buy this business. Either partner must offer its interest to the other before selling to a third party, and any transfer of shares requires the other's consent.
Why does a minority partner get that much say over the majority owner's exit? Because the venture was born in 2019 out of Barrick's failed attempt to buy Newmont, and the price of peace was a contract that gives each side a lock on the other's door.
Read those clauses the way Agnico's board would. No outsider can buy Barrick's Nevada stake without Newmont getting the first look, and no one gets in without Newmont's signature, which means the IPO is the only door out of Nevada that does not run through Denver.
Even that door had a price. Newmont had threatened legal action over what it called mismanagement of the venture, and Barrick needed its consent. On August 10, the two companies settled: Barrick contributes its Fourmile discovery into the joint venture early, Newmont contributes its Fiberline and Mike projects, Newmont pays Barrick $1.95 billion in cash, and Newmont consents to the IPO.
Barrick's shares fell as much as 9.7% in New York that day, the most since March, because, as the Financial Post put it, investors were disappointed by the value of the deal.
So the discovery that Barrick said in December "could put NewCo in a league of its own" now sits inside a joint venture where Newmont owns 38.5%, before a single share of the new company has been sold.
The Shareholders Who Do Not Want It
The second objection came from Barrick's own register.
Bloomberg reported in August, in a story carried by the Financial Post, that portfolio managers at Van Eck, Barrick's fourth-largest shareholder, met executives at least three times this year to push back on the plan. Mackenzie Financial, the tenth-largest holder, is opposed, and so is Franklin Equity Group.
Why would a shareholder object to a listing designed to raise the value of what they own?
Their objection is the one we would make. Through Barrick they already own all of Barrick's share of Nevada, and the IPO asks them to share their best asset with new investors while keeping every one of the harder assets in Africa and Asia.
Mackenzie's Benoit Gervais went further than fund managers usually go in public:
"If you ask me, it would be nice to have a graceful exit of this current chairman and have someone else come in."
Thornton won 81.1% support at the May meeting, below the chairmen of Newmont and Agnico, and BlackRock's active stewardship team had withheld its vote a year earlier. Barrick has still not said whether shareholders get a vote on the breakup at all.
Then, on September 2, Bloomberg reported that Barrick was weighing pushing the IPO into 2027, with Goldman Sachs working on the deal. "By the end of 2026" had been in every Barrick release since February, and Hill had repeated it on August 10.
Thirteen days later, Agnico's chief executive closed the most obvious remaining door.
Why Agnico Said No
Al-Joundi told Reuters the decision had nothing to do with price, and we believe him, because the numbers say Agnico does not need Barrick's mines to deliver what Barrick is promising.
Agnico's second quarter: 855,816 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,459 an ounce, a record $1.34 billion of free cash flow, $625 million returned to shareholders, and net cash of $3.27 billion against $197 million of debt. Fitch upgraded the company to A minus in April.
Barrick's second quarter, reported the same day as the Newmont settlement: 796,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,866 an ounce, up 11% in a year, and attributable free cash flow of $141 million. In that same quarter Barrick spent $1.209 billion buying back its own shares, more than eight times what the business generated after capital spending on an attributable basis.
Between the company selling the story and the company declining it, the cost gap is $407 an ounce.
So what was Agnico actually being asked to buy? A minority stake in a company controlled by Barrick, whose largest asset is a joint venture where Newmont holds first refusal and consent rights, whose own biggest shareholders are lobbying against the listing, and whose timetable has just slipped. What would Agnico get for four billion dollars or more? A seat in the back of somebody else's car.
Al-Joundi did leave one line open. Asked whether Agnico might one day go after the Nevada assets outright, he said that was for Barrick's board and management to decide. That is the polite way of saying the call is welcome, if Barrick ever wants to sell the whole thing instead of a sliver of it.
What This Does to the Stock You Own
Barrick closed at $42.43 on the NYSE on September 14, down 2.6% for the year, per Nasdaq. Agnico closed at $197.55, up 16.5% over the same stretch. Newmont closed at $123.07. It has agreed to pay Barrick $1.95 billion as part of a deal to add Barrick's Fourmile discovery and Newmont's Fiberline and Mike projects to their Nevada Gold Mines joint venture.
Both miners had a spectacular August, when Barrick's US shares rose 22% and Agnico's 40% as gold ran on the bond market chaos we laid out in The Note That Exposed Everything, the move we argued in Gold Surges as Yields Fall: Why Miners Could Be Next would reach the miners. Since September 3, Barrick has given back 7.3% while the IPO story soured.
So what do you do with this?
Let's put the whole picture in one place:
- Barrick wants to list 10% to 15% of a business analysts value at $42 billion, and keep control of it.
- Newmont holds first refusal and consent rights over the largest asset in that business, and has agreed to pay $1.95 billion for its signature.
- Van Eck, Mackenzie and Franklin, three of Barrick's biggest holders, oppose the plan, and one has asked the chairman to leave.
- The timetable has slipped from "by the end of 2026" to a reported 2027.
- The one buyer with the cash, the cost base and the North American footprint to anchor the deal has said no.
For Barrick (NYSE: B, TSX: ABX), the upside is the one Thornton described: a listed marker for the Nevada assets that forces the market to value the parent at more than $72 billion, backed by a $3 billion buyback programme and a $1.95 billion cheque from Newmont on the way. The risk is that a controlled minority float, with a partner's veto over its main asset, earns a holding-company discount instead of a premium, and that the discount is then applied to Barrick as well. At $42 and change, the stock is pricing the argument, and the argument has not been won.
For Agnico (NYSE and TSX: AEM), Tuesday's answer is the bull case in one line: it does not need a deal. It has a $2 billion buyback limit, Hope Bay approved for construction in May, and a cost base $400 an ounce below Barrick's. The risk is the one Agnico disclosed itself, with full-year production sitting near the bottom of its 3.3 to 3.5 million ounce range after the rock movement at Canadian Malartic in July. Any meaningful pullback in AEM deserves your attention.
For Newmont (NYSE: NEM), the settlement was the win of the summer: Fourmile inside the venture, 38.5% of a complex Barrick now calls nearly 100 million ounces, and a partner that needs Newmont's goodwill to list at all.
What to Watch, and By When
- Wednesday, September 16: the Fed. Reuters reports money markets expect the first rate hike since 2023, with the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% for the first time since 2007. Gold's LBMA afternoon price was $4,386 an ounce on September 11, and every number in this piece is priced off it.
- The Fourmile contribution. Newmont's $1.95 billion was due within thirty days of the August 10 agreement. When Barrick confirms the vend-in, Fourmile is a joint venture asset for good, whatever happens to the IPO.
- The date. Barrick has written "by the end of 2026" in every release since February. Watch whether the third quarter report keeps that date or moves it to 2027, because the answer tells you whether the bankers found the buyers Agnico declined to be.
Agnico was offered a piece of one of the best gold districts on Earth and kept its cash.
When the buyer with the deepest pockets walks away, the price is rarely the problem.
Seek the truth and be prepared,
Equedia
Sources
- Reuters, Agnico Eagle says it is not interested in participating in Barrick's North American IPO
- Barrick, Barrick Announces Evaluation of an Initial Public Offering of its North American Gold Assets
- Barrick, Barrick Advances IPO of North American Gold Assets, Announces Executive Appointments
- Reuters, Barrick to press ahead with IPO of North American gold assets, names Mark Hill CEO
- Reuters, Barrick's North America spin-off hinges on Newmont's approval, documents show
- Financial Post, Barrick chairman's planned overhaul meets investor backlash
- Barrick and Newmont, Barrick and Newmont Reach Agreement Regarding Nevada Gold Mines Joint Venture
- Mining.com, Barrick is said to weigh delaying North America gold IPO to 2027
- Agnico Eagle, Agnico Eagle Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
- Barrick, Barrick Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
- Nasdaq, Barrick Mining Corporation historical data
- Reuters, Global bond yields hit fresh highs, raising stakes for big borrowers
- LBMA, Precious metal prices
- The Equedia Letter, The Note That Exposed Everything
- The Equedia Letter, Gold Surges as Yields Fall: Why Miners Could Be Next
Disclaimer: This letter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. We own gold and gold stocks. Past predictions and performance are not indicative of future results. Please see our full terms of use and disclaimer at equedia.com.
