Gold

China Leads August Central Bank Gold Buying

The World Gold Council reports 39 tonnes of net official buying in August. China led, but the next month will test whether demand persists.

by Corinne Ashdown3 min read

A bank vault door stands ajar at the end of a dark stone corridor, warm light from inside falling on stacked gold bars and across the floor.
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The World Gold Council's October 6 report puts reported central bank net gold buying at 39 tonnes in August, led by 20 tonnes from China.

That follows 23 tonnes of reported net buying in July, according to the Council's September 3 report. Uzbekistan and Poland each added 8 tonnes in August, tied for second among the buyers the Council named.

If you own gold, the useful news is the repeat purchase. China bought 20 tonnes in July too, according to the Council, while Uzbekistan went from a 1 tonne July sale to an August purchase. Official demand continued through both months, although the buyers did not all move in the same direction.

The Buyers Behind August's Total

The Council puts reported purchases through August at 170 tonnes for the year. Poland still leads the cumulative list at 98 tonnes; China follows at 80 tonnes. China led the latest month, but Poland's earlier buying kept it ahead for the year.

Russia was among the sellers, reducing its holdings by 6 tonnes in August, the Council says. The reported global net of 39 tonnes measures purchases after reported sales, rather than the sum of the buyers' orders.

Does this promise a higher gold price? The report measures changes in official holdings, not their effect on trading. We see a continuing buyer for physical gold, but we cannot attach August's reserve additions to a particular price move.

The Council's June 16 survey found 45% of responding central banks expected their own gold reserves to rise over the following year. The Council measured expectations in the survey, while its next monthly report will show whether reported net buying continued. The aggregate count cannot tell us which survey respondents bought.

There is another limit to the count. In its July 30 quarterly analysis, the Council estimated 288.9 tonnes of central bank and other institutional net demand for the second quarter and said unreported buying remained elevated. August's 39 tonnes refers to reported monthly activity. The figures cover different buyers and periods, so dividing one by the other would give a false picture of official demand.

For a bullion position, State Street says GLD aims to track the price of gold bullion after expenses. Continued reserve buying strengthens our case for watching official demand, but it cannot remove price risk for a GLD holder. As we recorded in Gold and Silver Lose Ground as Yields Rise, higher Treasury yields accompanied weaker bullion prices in September. August's reserve changes alone cannot give us a gold price forecast.

For mining shares, stronger physical demand can help if it supports the gold price. Output and costs will determine how much of any gain reaches shareholders. We would want both the next reserve count and miners' operating results before paying more for that exposure.

On November 6, we will check whether the Council has published its September reserve update. If it has, China's reported tonnes and any August revision will help us assess whether reported official buying continued.

Seek the truth and be prepared,

Equedia News

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Disclaimer: We own gold and gold stocks. This letter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past predictions and performance are not indicative of future results. Please see our full terms of use and disclaimer at equedia.com.

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