On September 30, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that light-duty electric vehicles used nearly 14 billion kilowatthours of electricity in the first half of 2026. That was 8% more than in the second half of 2025, compared with 13% to 24% gains across recent six-month periods. The agency's underlying monthly series shows a growing load with less momentum. If you own utilities, your EV demand assumption now needs a smaller increment.
EIA also reported that new EV sales fell 19% in the first half of 2026 from the prior six months. Federal credits for buying or leasing new EVs expired in September 2025, before that sales decline. Sales measure additions to the fleet; charging comes from the cars already on the road. That helps explain why electricity use can keep climbing while showroom sales weaken. EIA's July 27 analysis adds an important distinction: conventional hybrids cannot plug into the grid, so their sales do not add to this charging load.
For power investors, we would put the EV figure beside the larger grid forecast. In its September 9 Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA expected U.S. electricity sales to rise almost 2% in 2026, driven by data center development and manufacturing activity. Those customers could sustain national demand growth even if EVs add less than they recently did. A nationwide EV estimate cannot tell you which utility earns the new sales, or which service area needs more equipment. The utility's own load and spending plans still decide the investment case.
There is a limit to the precision here. EIA models electricity use by on-road, light-duty battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles; it does not collect these figures in its traditional surveys. Heavier vehicles sit outside this series. And the 8% compares one half-year with the preceding half-year, rather than the same months a year earlier. We would use it to challenge a forecast that assumes the old EV growth rate persists, then check the next estimate before deciding the slowdown is durable.
The upside for utility shares is that the existing EV fleet keeps buying power while commercial demand has its own drivers. The risk is treating a national increase in kilowatthours as a promise of revenue for a particular company. Where the demand appears, what a utility charges and how much it must invest are still unanswered. We need those pieces before giving a utility credit for every new charger in America.
We will compare the October 6 Short-Term Energy Outlook with EIA's September sales forecast, then check the October 23 Electric Power Monthly for actual customer sales. The next numbers will show whether the broader demand case holds as EV growth cools.
Seek the truth and be prepared,
Equedia News
Sources
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. electricity use for electric vehicles increasing at a slower pace in 2026, September 30, 2026
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review Table 7.6: Electricity End Use and Electric Vehicle Use
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Hybrid sales rise while battery electric sales remain lower after tax credit expiration, July 27, 2026
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook: Electricity, Coal, and Renewables, September 9, 2026
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly release schedule, September 24, 2026
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