Economy

Bowman Sees No Urgency for Further Rate Action

Bowman wants time to assess September's hike. Fresh inflation data leave gold holders facing a pause debate, with no promise of cuts.

by Graham Ellery2 min read

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Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said on October 14 that she felt no urgency to take further policy action after September's rate increase, according to Reuters' report of her Bangkok remarks. The Fed's calendar lists her appearance at the IIF Annual Membership Summit that day.

The Fed's September 16 statement raised the target range to 3.75%-4% and described inflation as elevated. Bowman is arguing for time to judge the effects of that increase. Does that give us a reason to buy metals on the assumption that cheaper money is coming? We would need evidence that inflation is easing before building a position around cuts. Her remarks leave the next decision open and commit the committee to no particular outcome.

The BLS's October 14 release complicates a quick easing call: September consumer prices rose 0.6% from the previous month after seasonal adjustment. Prices excluding food and energy rose 0.3% on the same basis. Gasoline accounted for more than half the headline increase, according to the release, so fuel drove much of the jump while underlying prices also increased. We would use that breakdown to assess how widely inflation pressure is spreading before assuming the Fed can stop raising rates.

For your dollar exposure, a lower expected US rate path could reduce the currency's support from interest returns. A weaker dollar would reduce the local-currency cost of dollar-priced metals for buyers whose currencies strengthen. But Bowman supplied no forecast for that response. We would check the currency alongside inflation-adjusted Treasury yields before calling her comments a buying signal for gold, because higher real yields increase the income you forgo by holding bullion. Patience at a policy meeting alone cannot tell you which way those yields will move.

For the mining shares you own, we would keep projected interest costs tied to actual borrowing terms. Refinancing dates and whether debt carries a fixed or floating rate determine how quickly a producer feels any eventual policy change. We examined the pressure from yields in Gold and Silver Lose Ground as Yields Rise. Bowman's remarks give us a reason to reconsider the timing of another increase, while September's inflation report keeps the case for higher rates alive. We would want both cheaper funding and evidence of contained inflation before treating a pause as relief for a miner's finances.

Next we will watch the Fed's October 16 industrial production release and October 27-28 policy meeting, testing economic activity first and the committee's willingness to wait second.

Seek the truth and be prepared,

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Disclaimer: This letter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past predictions and performance are not indicative of future results. Please see our full terms of use and disclaimer at equedia.com. We own gold and gold stocks.

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