亲爱的读者，
我错了。
尽管获得了创纪录的选票，但Trump并未像我之前预测的那样继续担任总统。
虽然有很多理由说明他本应继续担任总统，但这都不重要了——他已经不再是了。
但我有一件事是正确的——作为一份投资通讯，这才是最重要的。
我预测股市将继续上涨，这是对的。
回顾我2020年10月的信件《散户投资者的崛起》：
“……不要认为Trump再次获胜是唯一能支撑市场的东西。
你看，无论美国大选后Trump是否掌权，共和党和民主党都无法阻止刺激措施——那将是经济自杀。
换句话说，我怀疑市场繁荣很可能会继续……
……如果大型机构的行动能说明问题，那么我关于牛市将持续的预测可能会再次被证明是正确的。”
因此，尽管有所有负面消息，例如COVID疫情和政治分歧，现在是时候把更多精力放在赚钱和过上更好生活上了。
正如 Elon Musk 所说：“我宁愿乐观地犯错，也不愿悲观地正确。
虽然很难将这种观念应用于投资，但请记住：他是世界上最富有的人
因此，在我深入探讨我认为今年市场走向之前，我们先回顾一下2020年的表现。
辉煌的2020年
以下是我们2020年撰写过的公司列表，包括它们的潜在最高回报、当前状况以及原始文章链接（点击下载excel文件）。
当然，这些数字仅仅是潜在业绩的衡量标准。我们没有人能做到在最低点买入并在最高点卖出。
这些公司中许多有可能继续上涨。反之，也有许多可能继续下跌。
换句话说，最重要的一点是，除非公司支付股息，否则在卖出之前你不会赚钱。永远要获利了结。没有什么会永远上涨——如果会，也总会有回调来重新调整仓位。
继续。
2021年股市将如何表现？
官方消息：Joe Biden 是美国总统。
有一些明显的行业几乎肯定会受益——绿色科技和基础设施、cannabis、cyclicals、mental health、platforms等。
但在你一头扎进去之前，了解资金将如何以及从何处继续推动市场至关重要。
首先也是最明显的是机构。
“专家们”一直告诉我，去年股票资金流出量很高，这是机构退出市场导致泡沫破裂的迹象。
嗯，结果当然不是那样。
2020年11月，股票基金的资金流入量创下20年新高。
据 Financial Times 2020年11月14日报道：
“根据数据提供商 EPFR Global 的数据，截至周三的一周内，股票基金流入445亿美元，其中包括超过320亿美元投资于U.S. stock funds。这是 EPFR 收集数据以来equity funds最大的单周流入量，也是自2000年以来U.S. stock funds第二大的流入量。”
这一趋势在12月继续：
据 Reuters 报道：
“Refinitiv Lipper 数据显示，截至12月2日的一周内，Global equity funds出现massive inflows，而投资者则从money market funds中撤出资金以寻求更高风险。”
总体而言，ETFs——新散户投资者的重要组成部分——创下了5020亿美元的日历年资金流入纪录。
然而，“专家们”是对的。U.S. equity funds全年流出2410亿美元——是2015年创下的580亿美元前纪录的四倍。
但这并非全部；large-growth equity funds在2020年流出660亿美元，标志着它们连续第17年出现资金流出。
现在，人们可能会认为这是因为投资者预期市场下跌而将资金从equities中撤出的结果。其中一部分确实如此，money market funds的增长就证明了这一点。
据 CNBC 报道：
“The coronavirus sell-off sent investors fleeing into money market funds, which ballooned well above $4 trillion, surpassing the peak of the financial crisis, according to research by LPL Financial. The flood into money markets pushed the sector’s assets to the highest on record, peaking at $4.672 trillion during the week of May 13, according to Refinitiv Lipper, and even recent net outflows have left more than 90% of that increase intact.”
但仅仅通过equity fund flows来衡量未来stock market performance和sentiment，就像在没有level 2 market depth的情况下进行投资一样——你根本无法获得清晰的图景。
那么，让我们深入挖掘一下。
U.S. Equities Liquidity
2019年，1.77万亿股股票通过90亿笔交易易手。这些交易价值81万亿美元。
- 标普500指数上涨28%。
- 纳斯达克综合指数上涨35%。
- 道琼斯指数上涨22.3%。
2020年，2.76万亿股股票通过148亿笔交易易手。这些交易价值121万亿美元。
- 标普500指数上涨超过16%。
- 纳斯达克综合指数惊人地飙升了43.6%。
- 道琼斯指数仅上涨9.7%（包括股息）。
尽管有COVID疫情，stock market参与度和liquidity显著增长——最重要的是，是向上增长。
fund outflows的真相就在于此。
安全即无聊
道琼斯指数，如果扣除股息，全年仅上涨7%。
道琼斯指数由30家大型blue-chip companies组成，这些公司已经存在了很长时间——Nike、Disney、McDonald’s、Apple、Microsoft……
由于其历史实力，这些blue-chip companies是许多大型equity funds的支柱。它们是大多数人认为的“安全”股票。
但“安全”的表现明显不佳。
不信就去问问那些把钱投入GIC’s或被可笑地误称为“high-interest”savings accounts的人。
不仅如此，blue chips也很无聊。
这为什么重要？
首先，虽然机构占据了市场的大部分，但它们仍然需要retail investor参与来激发兴奋和liquidity。
retail investors参与得越多，机构赚钱就越容易。
retail investors以一种重要的方式回归了。
散户热潮持续
2020年，retail investors占据了近20%的市场份额。
如果2021年的前几周预示着未来，那么2021年上半年可能会同样强劲。
据 Reuters 报道：
“Retail broker eToro 告诉 Reuters，2021年前11天新增用户超过38万，加上去年使用其平台交易的500万人。该公司表示，其三分之一的用户是在2020年加入的，当时其平台上的交易量从2019年飙升了五倍，达到1.5万亿美元。”
正如我去年10月在我的信件《散户投资者的崛起》中提到的，这一趋势正在不断增长——机构也正在押注于此：
“……如果大型机构的行动能说明问题，那么我关于牛市将持续的预测可能会再次被证明是正确的。
据 CNBC 报道：
“Fidelity 刚刚宣布计划在未来六个月内招聘4000人，并为实习和全职工作招聘1500名大学生。
Morgan Stanley 在今年早些时候收购 E-Trade 后，正在收购 Eaton Vance，因为它继续从Wall Street转向Main Street。
BlackRock——一家主要的机构投资者——也表示它正在吸引更多的retail money。”
当大公司将战略从Wall Street转向Main Street时，你就知道他们对retail investor寄予厚望。”
这一趋势并未停止。
本周早些时候，I.G. Group Holdings Plc 同意以10亿美元收购美国在线经纪平台 Tastytrade Inc.，新增10.5万个活跃retail accounts。
这是对少数投资者的一笔巨大押注。尽管如此，这是一项旨在利用快速增长的retail market的押注——I.G. 显然相信这个市场将继续蓬勃发展。
我敢打赌他们是对的。
新一代
三年前，在我的信件《2018年最佳投资行业》中，我写道：
“火炬正在从Baby Boomers传递给Millennials。
Millennials将通过经济、技术、社会和政治领域的互动，成为推动我们经济发展的决定性力量。作为全球互联的数字原住民，他们对银行和投资有不同的看法和方法，对能源有不同的看法，并且在社会和政治层面都有不同的期望和优先事项。
他们很快将成为活跃劳动力的主导一代，因此，将成为未来政治家和企业关注的焦点。
如果不是Millennials的politically correct和liberal nature，Trudeau可能永远不会被选为Canada’s PM。
如果不是Millennials，Amazon可能不会成为世界上最大的retailers之一。
从迎合Millennial consumer startups的企业buy-outs，到Millennials所要求的clean energy新时代，corporate focus的转变直接针对Next Generation。
这意味着最大的增长sectors和developments将针对Millennials及其对on-demand、connected和automated future的计划。
他们将是new investment trends和ideas的驱动者。
他们将是推动share prices更高的人。”
而这些说法，果然被证明是正确的。
clean energy space（想想Tesla和Nio）和on-demand platforms（想想Doordash、Netflix和Amazon）公司的share prices已经skyrocketed到incredible valuations。
当我写下上述内容时，Tesla 的交易价格为62美元；今天，它已达到846美元——涨幅近1300%。
在可预见的未来，这种情况不会改变。
但这并非全部。
就在一年多前，millennials负债累累，net worth几乎为零。
事实上，Deloitte 在2019年的一项研究显示，美国millennial的average net worth仅为8000美元。
据 Washington Post 报道：
“Post Millennials的财务状况远不如前几代人，student loans、rising rents和higher health-care costs将average net worth推低至8000美元以下，一项新研究显示。
根据会计和专业服务巨头 Deloitte 周四发布的研究，自1996年以来，18至35岁美国人的net worth下降了34%。这一人群在education以及food和transportation等basics上支付更多，而incomes却largely flatlined。”
然而，仅仅一年时间，而且令人难以置信地通过一场由政治引发的全球经济停摆，情况似乎正在发生变化。
据 Bloomberg 报道：
“……millennials的net worth正在快速增长。在2019年至2020年第三季度之间，这些美国人的aggregate net worth增长了21%，而Generation X（40至55岁之间）的net worth增长了8.5%，baby boomers——1946年至1964年出生——的wealth gain为4.3%。
Generation X成员持有约6万亿美元的liabilities，而assets为37万亿美元，baby boomers则有4.7万亿美元的debts和66.6万亿美元的assets。此外，baby boomers仅持有9580亿美元的consumer debt，而millennials持有1.6万亿美元。
……Stock market gains将millennial wealth推至其overall assets的六年最高份额，超过5.4万亿美元。第三季度的Real estate和consumer durables也达到了record levels。过去五年中，millennial holdings of corporate equities增加了3940亿美元。与此同时，private-business equity在过去三年中翻了一番，达到8000亿美元，反映出younger Americans创业热潮的兴起。”
正如我之前解释的，大多数millennial investors错过了过去十年历史性bull market run的大部分行情。
但他们现在正迅速重新入场。
据 CNN 报道：
“Schwab 在一封发给 CNN Business 的电子邮件中表示，自2019年初以来，其一半以上的新客户是40岁以下的households，这些younger customers的投资“asset levels高于正常水平，因此他们appear to be very engaged。
……（Robinhood co-founder and co-CEO Vladimir Tenev）补充说，该firm’s customers的median age是31岁，他们正在特别抢购airlines、videoconferencing和streaming media companies以及biotechs的shares。”
甚至new investors也在涌入。
据 Robinhood 报道：
“2020年上半年，Robinhood 的new accounts中有一半来自first-time investors。”
毫无疑问，commission-free trading的出现支撑了市场。它为millennials和Gen-Xers创造新经济——the financial economy——铺平了道路。
这意味着世界上最大的经济体变得更大了。
新常态
新常态并非关于戴口罩或保持社交距离。
新常态是从labour-driven economy向financial economy的转变。
我们已经知道，robots、A.I.以及更efficient platforms，如driverless cars，将take over many of the jobs that exist today。
这将迫使政府提供basic income——就像他们在去年的pandemic期间所做的那样。
我们现在知道当millennials和Gen-Xers lose their jobs时会发生什么：政府给他们一张check，而他们反过来invest和day trade以make more money。
虽然他们可能没有太多资金，但他们正在共同行动。
一只白蚁无法建造一个小土堆，但一个群体可以建造一个王国。
2017年9月，埃塞俄比亚南部奥莫河谷：非洲巨大的白蚁丘
持续攀升
虽然许多人在pandemic onset期间投资了stocks，但更多人saved their money——包括他们从政府那里获得的free money。
事实上，millennials’ cash和bank-deposit holdings去年增长了80%以上，从2019年的1000亿美元增至去年的2160亿美元。
换句话说，consumer手头flush with cash并wants to spend it——特别是如果COVID在夏季dies down（我相信会），并且economy opens back up。
当consumers spend时会发生什么？
一切都回到了corporations。
记住我的话：今年将出现record corporate profits。
美联储的独创性
虽然许多人argue the Fed和其他central banks have printed too much，但他们forget to argue the other side：即有liabilities的地方，也有assets。
关键在于将这些liabilities转化为growth。
而这正是Fed所做的。
五年前，资金流向了corporations——从而流向了stock market。
回顾我2014年7月的信件《美联储如何影响股市》：
“Since Fed policy dictates that it cannot directly buy stocks, the Fed has found other ways to encourage people to take risks。
我之前已经多次谈论过这些strategies。
One of these strategies is to force banks to lend。
The problem, however, is that it’s difficult for banks to lend to unqualified borrowers. And since the majority of Americans have been terribly affected by the economic crisis, many of them don’t meet the requirements for borrowing。”
With so much stimulus, where has all the money gone?
To the people who meet the requirements: big corporations with cash.
Remember a while back when I talked about the record amount of cash hoarding by big corporations and how they weren’t using it for capital investments (hiring, infrastructure, etc.) because the economy didn’t warrant such actions?
So what do you do when you have so much cash but nowhere to deploy it?
Invest in the stock market…simple!
Since spending didn’t make sense for these corporations, as the economy truly didn’t warrant further hiring or sales, these companies decided to buy a record amount of their own stock with their cash pile.
When a company issues a share buyback, the amount of outstanding shares in a company decreases. This leads to a higher Earnings Per Share (EPS), which makes the stock look much more attractive. This, of course, leads to higher share prices.
While this is great for shareholders, it’s bad for the economy as the cash is no longer put to use to hire new employees or grow the company.
Share buybacks continue at a record pace, and I expect billions of dollars in transactions over the next few months alone.
But there’s even more to this story than what the face value suggests.
While the headlines tell us of record cash holdings at corporations (giving the illusion sales are great), what they don’t tell us is that U.S. corporate cash holdings are at the lowest level relative to corporate debt.
That’s because banks – as I just mentioned – have had to lend record amounts of money out.
And since many consumers no longer qualify to buy houses or take out other loans, the majority of this lending has gone to big corporations.”
The Fed had to rely on banks to drizzle the printed money into the economy. As we witnessed over the last decade, that is a long and lengthy process.
但那是过去。
Today, we have governments around the world directly giving money to their citizens. We have governments paying the wages for corporations – leading to record profits that will continue to balloon when consumers spend the money that the very same government has given them.
All central banks have to do now is inject money. The governments hand it out, and the stock market goes up. In turn, investors make money.
然后这一切又重新发生。
现在想象一下。
没有工作？没问题。投资就行了。
这就是新的financial economy。
结论
COVID pandemic显著加速了一个new economic era的到来，以warp speed引入了new technologies，使一切变得more efficient。
我们变得越efficient，需要做的工作就越少。
而less work就意味着——fewer jobs和fewer hours for the jobs that exist。
但这重要吗？如果我们主要成为一个financial economy，大多数人坐在家里通过investing赚钱，这重要吗？
Sure, you could argue that if this new financial economy is successful, it will lead to hyper-inflation. But I haven’t seen any signs of inflation, and the world has printed tens of trillions of dollars. Have you?
Don’t get me wrong, if this keeps up for many years, yes, we might see hyperinflation. But that’s not going to happen in 2021.
Furthermore, all the central banks have to do is squeeze the money supply like they always have and raise rates. The market will crash as a result, followed by more printing. And the whole cycle begins again.
In the short-term, there are lots of reasons for optimism. The economy will open back up…a massive infrastructure bill will make its way in the fourth quarter…and most importantly, COVID fears will dissipate.
And while higher corporate and individual taxes are coming for Americans, none of that will pass in the near-term.
In other words, make as much money as possible now.
寻求真相，
Ivan Lo
Equedia 通讯
后记：
本通讯的常客读者会了解我对COVID pandemic的立场。With everyone rushing out to get vaccinated, it is my hope that it doesn’t backfire.
据 Telegraph 报道：
“Authorities in Norway are investigating the deaths of 23 frail elderly patients who had recently received the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine。
Most experts have said there is no need for alarm with the fatalities in this group most likely to be a coincidence.
According to a report in the British Medical Journal, 13 deaths have so far been investigated, and authorities have concluded that common adverse reactions to mRNA vaccines, such as fever, nausea, and diarrhoea, may have contributed to the deaths.
Steinar Madsen, medical director of the Norwegian Medicines Agency (NOMA), told the Journal: “It may be a coincidence, but we aren’t sure… there is no certain connection between these deaths and the vaccine.”
“There is a possibility that these common adverse reactions, that are not dangerous in fitter, younger patients and are not unusual with vaccines, may aggravate underlying disease in the elderly,” Mr Madsen said. “We are not alarmed or worried about this, because these are very rare occurrences, and they occurred in very frail patients with very serious disease.”
The irony can be summed up in the last paragraph of that quote:
“There is a possibility that these common adverse reactions, that are not dangerous in fitter, younger patients and are not unusual with vaccines, may aggravate underlying disease in the elderly,” Mr Madsen said.”
COVID barely affects fitter, younger patients. So why take a vaccine at all?
“We are not alarmed or worried about this, because these are very rare occurrences, and they occurred in very frail patients with very serious disease.”
COVID can kill those who would be considered very frail patients with very serious disease. So why take a vaccine if the vaccine might kill them, just as COVID might have?
Now take a look at this.
据 Moderna 报道：
“Moderna acknowledges receiving a report from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) that several individuals at one vaccination center in San Diego were treated for possible allergic reactions after vaccination from one lot of Moderna’s COVID-19 Vaccine.”
然后通过 Zerohedge 解释：
“……The COVID-19 jab has been linked to other cases of serious medical emergencies, not just in the U.S., but in Europe and elsewhere around the world。
In December, a physician in Boston said he suffered one of the worst allergic reactions he’s ever experienced after receiving Moderna’s vaccine, describing the episode as potentially life-threatening, while a doctor in Miami actually died due to a reaction from the vaccine.
Similar cases linked to the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine have been referred to the CDC and FDA for review. According to other reports, Hong Kong’s government-appointed vaccine advisory panel is seeking more data from the Norwegian and German governments on the reported deaths of elderly people after they received。”
So while I believe the market will keep rising, it doesn’t mean it can’t be stopped.
A sudden rise in vaccine deaths could immediately put a halt to everything.
Keep that in mind.
