2014年股市展望
2013年是充满跌宕起伏的一年；美国股市上涨，而资源丰富的加拿大市场则经历诸多下跌。
年初，我决定只推荐一只贵金属股票，看看该行业能否扭转局面；结果并没有。因此，我在白银投资上蒙受了第一次损失。
但那次尝试今年挽救了我的投资组合。除了我在6月底告诉你们要抓住的贵金属交易机会外，我基本上完全避开了贵金属。
(幸运的是，我的一些科技股获得了巨大回报——其中一只上涨了650%以上)
毫无疑问，许多受人尊敬的“对抗美联储”的专家在2013年遭受重创。大型贵金属基金被摧毁，包括著名加拿大对冲基金经理Eric Sprott的旗舰基金，今年已下跌超过50%。
这些贵金属专家在他们的基本面分析上错了吗？
他们对全球经济的悲观看法错了吗？
我不这么认为。事实上，我会说他们完全正确。
然而，问题在于忘记了谁在掌控一切：美联储。
如果说今年我的大部分信件中都回响着一个教训，那就是“永远不要与一个可以无限印钞的实体作对。”
以下是过去两年中，两大印钞机“启动者”日本和美国的市场表现：
我绝不认同美联储的做法，也不支持它。坦率地说，正如你可能在我的信件中注意到的那种近乎“阴谋论”的语气，美联储只为追求自身的增长而运作；将更多的社会吞噬到其银行体系中。
但图表说明了一切。
美联储之手
如果你简单地回顾一下2008年之前发生的事情，就会很容易看到美联储的干预。
低利率和货币激励导致了大量可疑金融工具的产生，从而引发了房地产泡沫。这迫使美国政府借入巨额资金以拯救经济。由于世界各国都遭受了冲击波，美国政府转向了最后的贷款人：美联储——而美联储最初正是问题的制造者。
因此，虽然我赞扬贵金属专家们不仅大胆揭示了美联储的基本真相，同时支持gold，但我认为fundamentals（暂时）在投资中扮演次要角色——尤其是在这个充满manipulation、regulatory policies和robot trading的现代时代。
信仰与投资之间存在着明显的区别。我认为许多贵金属专家今年失败的原因就在于此：他们在交易中变得情绪化。
假以时日，这些专家将被证明是正确的。他们的fundamental analysis最终将在market place中体现出来。我们稍后会再谈到这一点。
美国经济正处于变革之中；从制造业时代转向金融工具时代。这是一个主要问题，因为它加剧了贫富差距，导致美国中产阶级的衰落。结果已经随处可见。Median wages have fallen to lows not seen in 15 years, while top earners are making more money than ever.
目前——尽管听起来令人不安——如果你想生存和繁荣，就跟着Fed走。
引爆点
许多伟大的New York Times Best Sellers，例如Jonah Berger的Contagious，或Malcolm Gladwell的《The Tipping Point》，都探讨了事物为何会流行起来。
随着世界各地许多新现象的流行——Bitcoins、Twitter、Facebook、Instagram、stock market rallies和global monetary stimulus——我认为研究这些作者的理论与我们现在的情况有何关联会很有趣。
在Malcom Gladwell的《The Tipping Point》中，他首先回顾了1990年代初期New York City犯罪率的急剧下降。
他解释说，1992年，New York City发生了2144起谋杀案和626,182起严重犯罪。但突然之间，情况发生了变化。五年内，谋杀案下降了64.3%至770起，严重犯罪下降了近一半至355,893起。
这怎么可能在如此短的时间内发生呢？
市里的警察会告诉你，这是他们警务策略显著改善的结果。犯罪学家说，这是可卡因交易减少和人口老龄化的结果。与此同时，经济学家则表示，1990年代城市经济活动的逐步改善，使得那些原本可能成为罪犯的人获得了就业机会。
这些是社会问题兴衰的传统解释。
Malcolm指出，可卡因交易减少、人口老龄化和经济活动改善都是全国范围内的长期趋势。那么，为什么New York City的犯罪率在如此短的时间内比全国其他地区下降得更多呢？
社会和经济指标的变化如何能在五年内导致谋杀率下降三分之二？
Gladwell写道，要真正理解这类现象，我们必须将其视为流行病；思想、产品、信息和行为可以像病毒一样传播。
New York犯罪率的下降是流行病的一个典型例子。这并不是说1993年突然有很大一部分潜在杀人犯幡然醒悟，决定不再犯罪。也不是说警察奇迹般地干预了那些原本会致命的情况。
发生的情况是，少数人在少数情况下，在警察和新的社会力量产生一定影响下，开始表现出非常不同的行为，而这种行为以某种方式通过类似情况下的其他罪犯传播开来。
然而，无论原因是什么，如果事情能在如此短的时间内好转，它是否也能轻易逆转并走向反面呢？
日益严重的流行病
当我们把New York视为世界金融贸易中心，充满百万富翁和奢华商店时，一场流行病正在这座城市悄然出现：贫富差距。
在New York Times一篇令人悲伤但发人深省的文章《Invisible Child》中，我们得知New York有超过22,000名无家可归的儿童，这是自Great Depression以来最高的数字，发生在美国最不平等的都市。
这种流行病已迅速蔓延全国。
根据CNN报道，在2011-12学年期间，有120万无家可归的学生，从preschool到high school。根据Department of Education资助的National Center for Homeless Education最新数据显示，这一数字比去年增长了10%，比recession开始时增长了72%。
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这是一个完美的流行病例子。
尽管North America和世界各地都充斥着负面消息，但stock market却处于历史新高。如果stock market是经济的先行指标，为什么公司不招聘？为什么America无家可归的人比以前更多了？
因为根据“专家”的说法，corporations表现出色。他们告诉我们，P/E ratios仍在正常范围内，还有很大的增长空间。但他们告诉我们原因了吗？
正如我在2012年的Letter中提到的，higher earnings是inflation的结果，更重要的是——以牺牲jobs为代价的major cost-savings。
以下是来自Bloomberg，通过Zerohedge提供的数据图表：
该图表显示了Russell 2000 equity index公司jobs与Russell 2000之间的重大脱节。
通常，当corporations经营良好时，它们会hire more people，因为它们需要更多manpower来sustain their growth。
但自2008年以来，这一trend已dramatically reversed。
America的Corporations不再是因为selling more goods而表现良好——它们表现良好是因为它们正在becoming more efficient。换句话说，它们正在shipping jobs overseas，或者handing them over to robots。
The discrepancy between the wealthy and the “not-so-wealthy” continues to grow。
问题是，这种discrepancy在美国何时会变得如此之大，以至于forces the nation into a revolution。
stock market的基本面何时会take over？stock market何时会从其meteoric rise中fall？
利率冲击
今年，我谈论了从Federal Reserve的power到Russia的ambitions等一切话题。
如果你是新读者，我强烈建议你利用holiday回顾一下今年的Letters，因为它会让你对正在发生的事情和原因有一个更清晰的了解。
stock market的rise是world的central banks创造的一场epidemic。
他们向financial system注入了如此多的money，以至于removing any of it will cause an immediate collapse。
那么，这个system究竟有多easily toppled？
Last week, Bernanke announced tapering。在many letters before，我suggested that his tapering would not only be minimal，but it would have no affect on the market because of its size。
The market rose on its announcement。
What’s more important – as I have stressed – is the continued aggressive stance on low interest rates。
Ultimately, interest rates dictate the pace of everything。
看看这个：
这张图表代表了如果interest rate上升1%对bond losses的estimation。如果interest rate spiked 1%，bond funds would lose $200 billion。
That is exactly why Bernanke announced that low interest rates would remain for an even longer period of time than previously announced。
Bernanke says the federal fund rate isn’t expected to rise until 2015，and will remain at current record-low levels even after the unemployment rate falls below 6.5 per cent。
When the price appreciation of assets is the result of a low interest rate environment (cheap money) rather than real economic drivers，there is no turning back。
这封Letter不是book review，也不是关于economy到底有多bad。这封Letter是关于changing the way you view the stock market。
And the stock market, too, has its “tipping point。”
But will the markets “tip” in 2014？
Ultimately, the same people who control our money and the media (the Fed), dictate the pace of our markets。They are the puppet masters, and sadly, we are the puppets。
Whatever actions they choose, we have to pay attention。
史上最快上涨
It’s easy for every one to predict that 2014 will fall because of the dramatic rise in nominal values over the past few years。
However, analysts and experts have been telling me that the stock market would crash every year since 2008。They told me the same this year – despite my arguments for the contrary。
Since 2008, I have told my readers to buy American equities，essentially following the wisdom of Warrant Buffet that the lowering of interest rates create secular bull markets。
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average achieved something it hadn’t managed in nearly 14 years：it closed at a new record inflation-adjusted high。
What’s more significant is that this is the fastest return to an inflation-adjusted record in American stock market history。
After past bear markets, it has generally taken as much as 30 years for the Dow to return to an inflation-adjusted record：from 1906 to the mid twenties；from the late 1920’s to the late fifties；and from the late sixties to the early nineties。
Does that mean the secular bear market is over？
I believe it could be, especially if you look at it from a historical perspective – although I know I will get a lot of heat for saying this。
If you tune out all of the noise, the chart’s direction tells us its over。We’ve broken to new inflation-adjusted highs and there are compelling reasons to say the market could go higher in 2014 – continued low interest rates, intervention by the Fed, and Obama spending。
Is there a possibility that stocks will fall in 2014？Yes, of course。And if it does, it could be the worst financial disaster in the history of mankind。
But I don’t see that happening unless there is a revolution of some sort, or the central banks decide it’s someone else’s turn (Russia？China？) for prosperity。
Furthermore, since Obama bends to the will of the Federal Reserve, and will remain in power until 2016, it would be a risky bet to expect a market crash – even if fundamentals point to that being the case。
However, leading to the end of Obama’s reign, the disparity between the rich and poor may force the American people to vote for someone who will attempt to fight the Fed。
At which point, if this “fight-the-Fed” candidate wins, the Fed will likely contract the money supply (as they have done in the past), and America could fall into a great depression。
Will the American people be willing to fall in order to rise？
2014年的增长与趋势
There are 2 billion people who aspire for the lifestyles of the West。
While the middle class shrinks in America, it will grow in other parts of the world。
According to the OECD, by 2030, the middle class is expected to rise from 2 billion to 5 billion, and their spending expected to grow to $35 trillion。
Many corporations in America distribute products and services to this growing market, so focusing on companies with international sales will be a priority。
Technology is another area of growth because it will always change society。We’re currently on the cusp of many breakthroughs in tech including 3D printing, faster computer chips, nanotechnology, and quantum computing。If there is one sector that can save America, its tech。
Since the manufacturing era has moved away from America, new job creation will require a higher level of education。For 2014, the education sector may be one of the hidden areas of growth。As technology changes, America’s declining middle class will need to evolve to survive。Jobs in America will require a higher level of training, and a higher level of education。This, along with government policy, will lead education stocks higher。
Healthcare is important because it involves government policy and gains political votes from a growing lower class in America。Look for many ways to play Obamacare and the growing healthcare requirements of baby boomers。
For those who don’t want to bet on the overall direction of the market, I suggest looking at individual stocks or sectors；for example healthcare stocks and uranium plays。
Of course, I can’t finish this section without discussing the prospects of gold and silver。I have, on too many occasions, written about the supply and demand of fundamentals within the space。I note that since gold and silver are traded via financial instruments with currency, they too can be manipulated as easily as anything else on a trading platform。
Gold is clearly shifting from the West to the East。The People’s Bank of China hasn’t provided an update on its bullion reserves since 2009, but some estimate that the country has quietly accumulated over 300 tonnes this year alone。
If China decides to use 2014 as the year it unleashes its numbers, it could provide a strong pop to the gold market。But keep in mind, as I have mentioned in past letters, accumulators prefer a lower price；there is no rush for China to drive up the price of gold。
Physical demand fundamentals for both gold and silver remain strong and growing。I will maintain a portion of my portfolio into select gold and silver stocks for 2014 – but will wait for much bigger cues before diving in deeper。
Bitcoin流行病
How can I talk about gold without talking about Bitcoins and virtual currencies？The creation and the epidemic nature of these things clearly show that society wants to fight the Fed。
However, virtual currencies are, in essence, another Fed-like regime：a digital currency created from thin air without any real monetary “value。”
“Bitcoiners” forget to realize that, despite gaining mass momentum, they are still extremely small。And small means easily manipulated。
Bitcoin took a massive drop of over 50% in just a few days earlier this month when China decided to ban Bitcoin transactions。The coins traded below $500, falling from highs of $1200。
Like gold, I ask the same questions about Bitcoin：Could it be that the rise in the value of Bitcoin was orchestrated by bankers to control the Bitcoin supply？Could it be that they drove up the price of the virtual coins, just so they could slam it and scare investors away？
After all, no matter how many Bitcoins you buy, they’re purchased with currency created by central banks。
这将是我本月写的最后一封信。感谢您今年所有的支持，我期待在2014年为您带来更多想法和见解。
祝您节日快乐，新年愉快。
