US Payrolls Rise as December Fed Hike Bets Grow
October hiring and upward revisions strengthen December hike expectations. For gold holders, the dollar and real yields remain separate tests.
by Graham Ellery3 min read
The US added 165,000 jobs in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation release, published November 6, 2026. BLS described unemployment as little changed at 4.1%, while revisions added 84,000 jobs to the combined August and September gains. Stronger hiring and the improved earlier estimates weaken the argument that a faltering labour market will keep the Federal Reserve from raising rates again.
In its Friday report carrying a 12:35 p.m. ET market snapshot, Reuters put CME FedWatch's December hike probability at 81%, against 72.8% before the jobs release. These are probabilities inferred from interest-rate futures, so they change as traders revise expectations. Markets already favoured an increase; today's surprise strengthened that expectation. The Reuters report also described the dollar and Treasury yields rising after the data while gold prices fell.
Has the Fed already made its choice? In its October 28 statement, the committee held rates while Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted for a quarter-point increase. The statement said more information would help determine the appropriate stance to return inflation to target. We now have stronger employment evidence to put beside that inflation concern, but no new committee decision. A December hike remains an expectation that incoming inflation and hiring data can reinforce or weaken.
The US hiring strength contrasts with the Canadian weakness we covered in Canadian Bond Yields Fall After Weak Jobs Report. For your gold holdings, that divergence creates currency exposure alongside rate exposure. A stronger US dollar makes bullion more expensive for buyers using other currencies. For an unhedged Canadian investor, a weaker loonie can cushion a decline in the US-dollar gold price when the holding is translated into Canadian dollars. The size of that cushion depends on both moves, so we would keep the currency calculation beside the metal price.
Gold pays no interest, and higher inflation-adjusted bond yields increase the return you give up to hold it. Yet a rise in nominal Treasury yields alone cannot establish that real yields rose, because expected inflation also enters the calculation. We would resist turning a strong payroll number into an automatic gold-price forecast. For your mining shares, the financing test is more direct: developers needing fresh debt remain exposed if borrowing costs rise. A funding plan that requires rate relief leaves you vulnerable even when the underlying metal price holds steady.
We will watch October CPI on November 10, November payrolls on December 4, and the December 8-9 Fed meeting for whether stronger hiring translates into another increase.
Seek the truth and be prepared,
Equedia News
Sources
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, October Employment Situation, November 6, 2026; next release December 4
- Reuters, Gold drops 1% as strong US payrolls boost dollar, yields, November 6, 2026; market snapshot 12:35 p.m. ET
- CME Group, FedWatch methodology overview, consulted November 6, 2026
- Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, October 28, 2026
- Equedia News, Canadian Bond Yields Fall After Weak Jobs Report, November 6, 2026
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI release calendar, consulted November 6, 2026
- Federal Reserve, FOMC meeting calendar, consulted November 6, 2026
Disclaimer: This letter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past predictions and performance are not indicative of future results. We own gold and gold stocks. Please see our full terms of use and disclaimer at equedia.com.
