Gold Prices Rebound Ahead of Fed Decision
A softer dollar and lower yields support gold's rebound. Wednesday's Fed decision tests whether bullion relief can extend to your mining shares.
by Corinne Ashdown3 min read
Gold prices rebounded into Monday's Asian session, with December futures at US$4,028.30 an ounce in CME's delayed quote update at 12:01 a.m. Central Time on October 26. In its October 26 report, published at 04:34 UTC, FXStreet attributed bullion's recovery to a weaker dollar and lower US bond yields.
Can that support last beyond Wednesday? In Gold and Silver Fall After US Inflation Accelerates, we followed how faster consumer inflation raised the policy risk for bullion holders. The Fed's September 16 statement raised its benchmark rate and said inflation remained elevated. Lower yields can reduce the income forgone by holding gold, which pays no interest, as State Street's September research explains. We see room for relief when that pressure eases, but the Fed's inflation assessment still leaves your holding exposed to renewed tightening concerns.
For your bullion exposure, State Street's GLD product page, reviewed October 26, lists SPDR Gold Shares on NYSE Arca under GLD and says the trust aims to reflect gold bullion prices less expenses. That gives you a way to express a view on the metal without also taking on a mine's operating performance. A further retreat in the dollar and yields could support that position; a reversal after the decision could work against it. The same page warns shares can trade above or below net asset value, so the metal's move and your dealing price need not match exactly.
For your mining shares, a sustained rise in selling prices can widen margins if costs hold, but an overnight futures quote cannot establish that improvement. Newmont, NEM on the NYSE, reported third-quarter gold by-product all-in sustaining costs of $1,454 an ounce in its October 22 results. That is a reported quarterly non-GAAP cost measure, with a different period and basis from today's futures price. If you own NEM, the attraction is the cash a stronger gold price could generate. Production, operating expenses and capital spending still determine how much reaches shareholders.
The Fed's meeting calendar, reviewed October 26, sets the decision for October 28, with no scheduled new economic projections at this meeting. That puts the emphasis on the statement and press conference, rather than a fresh set of policymakers' rate forecasts. A pause accompanied by continued inflation concern could leave further tightening in play. We would want firmer bullion prices to survive that policy message before treating Monday's recovery as support for higher future mining cash flows. Your bullion position responds to the metal's price; your miner must also deliver the ounces and control the spending.
We will watch the October 28 decision and whether the dollar and yields then sustain or reverse Monday's support for gold.
Seek the truth and be prepared,
Equedia News
Sources
- CME Group, Gold futures quotes, page updated October 26, 2026, 12:01:56 a.m. Central Time
- FXStreet, Gold rebounds from three-month low, holds $4,000 as FOMC looms, October 26, 2026, 04:34 UTC
- Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
- State Street Investment Management, Fed tightening should not alter gold's structural story post-pandemic, September 2026
- State Street Investment Management, SPDR Gold Shares product information, reviewed October 26, 2026
- Newmont, Third-quarter results, October 22, 2026, official PDF
- Federal Reserve, FOMC meeting calendar, reviewed October 26, 2026
- Equedia News, Gold and Silver Fall After US Inflation Accelerates, October 14, 2026
Disclaimer: This letter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past predictions and performance are not indicative of future results. We own gold and gold stocks. Please see our full terms of use and disclaimer at equedia.com.
