Bessent Cites Million-Job Private Payroll Gain
Bessent's cumulative jobs totals match BLS data, but the latest hiring pace and revisions give gold and bond holders a different Fed test.
by Graham Ellery3 min read
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said private employment has risen by more than 1 million jobs since inauguration while federal employment has fallen by 328,000, in an October 27 statement on X. The totals reconcile with payroll data already published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For your gold and bond holdings ahead of tomorrow's Fed decision, the recent hiring pace gives us a different signal from the cumulative gain.
The BLS private payroll series, accessed October 27, shows a net increase of 1,006,000 jobs from January 2025 through September 2026. The federal series falls by Bessent's stated total over the same period, to 2.682 million. Its historical record supports his comparison with the 1960s, although April this year was slightly lower than September. We are comparing monthly payroll estimates, rather than counting jobs from inauguration day itself: the BLS technical note says the survey covers pay periods including the twelfth of each month. These are net changes in payroll jobs, and they do not show that former federal employees took the private jobs added.
What does the latest month tell us? The September employment report, released October 2, showed total payrolls up just 29,000, while unemployment held at 4.2%. It also revised July and August's combined payroll gain down by 60,000 as more reports arrived and seasonal factors were recalculated. The September estimate remains preliminary. We would use that recent pace and those revisions to assess hiring momentum, rather than treating today's statement as a new monthly jobs release.
The Fed's September 16 statement raised its policy range to 3.75%-4% and said inflation remained elevated. Our reading is that modest hiring gives policymakers a reason to assess that increase before tightening again, while stable unemployment gives them room to keep rates restrictive. The employment mix cannot settle the inflation question. As we explained in Daly Sees More Rate Hikes, Leaves October Open, willingness to wait can coexist with an expectation of further increases.
For your longer-dated bonds, another rise in yields would reduce their market value. For gold, higher real yields increase the income you forgo by holding an asset that pays no interest. We would therefore need evidence of lower expected rates and real yields before treating a pause as support for both holdings. A cumulative private payroll gain establishes neither direction.
We will watch the October 28 Fed decision for its assessment of hiring and inflation, then the November 6 jobs report for October payrolls and revisions.
Seek the truth and be prepared,
Equedia News
Sources
- Scott Bessent, Employment statement, October 27, 2026
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Private payroll series, accessed October 27, 2026
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal payroll series, accessed October 27, 2026
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal payroll history, accessed October 27, 2026
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, September employment technical note, October 2, 2026
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, September employment report, October 2, 2026
- Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
- Equedia News, Daly Sees More Rate Hikes, Leaves October Open, October 15, 2026
- Federal Reserve, Meeting calendar, accessed October 27, 2026
Disclaimer: This letter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past predictions and performance are not indicative of future results. Please see our full terms of use and disclaimer at equedia.com. We own gold and gold stocks.
