一些不可思议的事情正在发生。那些看到迹象的人已经开始收获回报。
但这仅仅是个开始。
你看，政客、中央银行家和主流媒体人物一再向我们保证一切都在掌控之中——通货膨胀是暂时的，债务是可控的，美国的金融堡垒是坚不可摧的。
但历史却低语着不同的答案。
它提醒我们，每当政客过早宣布金融胜利时，普通公民最终都会承受他们误判的冲击。
我们今天正进入一个这样的关键时刻。
数万亿美元的新支出、不断升级的债务以及美元全球主导地位的迅速侵蚀，正在为一场前所未有的金融动荡奠定基础。
虽然有机会保护你的财富免受政客行为的影响，但只有一种真正、永恒的资产被证明能够经受住一切考验。
今天，当数字达到荒谬的规模时，那种东西再次在幕后等待着——它安静、廉洁，完全超出了政客的掌控。
美国的危险赌博
本周早些时候，美国通过了Big Beautiful Bill (BBB)。
这项庞大的立法将向现有的大量债务中注入3.3万亿美元的新赤字，更重要的是，将法定债务上限再提高5万亿美元，以避免技术性违约。
这份近900页的法案是税收减免和激励措施、支出削减以及其他共和党关键目标的广泛汇编，其中包括为国防和移民执法措施提供额外资金。
在这900页中蕴藏着一个关键机遇——但在你理解其原因之前，它可能并不明显。
特朗普总统的BBB法案取消了长期以来对太阳能和风能的联邦激励措施；相反，它为石油、天然气和煤炭生产提供了极其有利的环境。
特朗普明确阐述了他的能源优先事项，强调美国将继续依赖石油、天然气、煤炭和核能来满足其日益增长的能源需求。上周末，他明确批评了风能和太阳能。
“我不想让风车破坏我们的景观，”特朗普在6月29日播出的Fox News采访中说。“我当然也不想让这些太阳能装置绵延数英里，覆盖山坡，丑陋不堪。”
这种对化石燃料的偏好和对可再生能源的抵制，体现在总统的旗舰国内政策立法中。
根据石油和天然气行业的领先游说团体，该法案满足了该行业的关键要求，同时取消了对太阳能和风能扩张至关重要的税收激励措施。
随着BBB法案的通过，石油和天然气以及其他传统能源生产商已经看到了股价上涨带来的好处。
但尽管这看起来是一个简单的机会，但这并非我们即将揭示的机会。
稍后更多。
花钱，花钱，花钱！
当罗马从denarius中削减白银时，面包和橄榄油的价格飙升。当Weimar的印刷机日夜不停地运转时，一张邮票价值数十亿marks。当国会授权数万亿美元而纳税人无法承担时，Federal Reserve必须弥补差额，或者US必须向他人借款。
每印制一张新美元来为这笔债务融资，都会降低现有美元的购买力，悄无声息地掠夺储户和工薪阶层。
但这还不是全部。
你可能会认为这种支出应该真正Make America Great Again。但实际上，这只是对一个正在失血的金融系统的又一个权宜之计。
美国的债务现已超过36万亿美元，Congressional Budget Office承认，仅利息支付一项很快就会超过军事开支。
我再说一遍：36万亿美元！
这意味着美国人赚取的每一美元——以及美国经济一年内产生的每一美元——都远远不足以偿还这笔债务。
竞争性贬值：一场全球货币战争
然而，U.S.并非唯一一个财政鲁莽的国家。世界各国都陷入了一场微妙但激烈的货币战争。
当U.S.用新印的美元充斥市场时，其他国家必须效仿，否则将面临经济毁灭。它们必须贬值本国货币，才能继续作为出口商与America这个全球最大的消费市场保持竞争力。
Japan通过永久quantitative easing证明了这一点；ECB早已加入；Beijing今年已两次下调reserve requirements以削弱yuan。
结果是一场无人能赢，只有输得更惨的竞赛。
但对于那些希望在这场战斗中保护自己的人来说，有一个解决方案。
BRICS和美元霸权的终结
不幸的是，US支出远非US dollar贬值的唯一原因。
正如我们之前多次提到的，放弃U.S. dollar作为世界reserve currency的运动正在升级。
BRICS alliance（Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa）内的国家正在积极推动推翻dollar的主导地位。
Brazil和China已经开始直接用yuan进行贸易，完全绕过了dollar。India正在用rupees购买Russian oil，Russia也积累了massive reserves of Chinese yuan。Saudi Arabia，历史上America’s partner in maintaining the petrodollar，已表示愿意接受Chinese yuan for oil payments。
这些转变代表着seismic geopolitical changes。
Each agreement chips away at the dollar’s influence。
While G7 treasuries dilute value through excess supply, the BRICS bloc is attacking the system from the demand side—reducing the need to hold dollars. The blueprint was sketched in 2014 when the BRICS Development Bank was born.
正如我们在2014年所写：
“Emerging economies have had enough of being slaves to a currency that has unlimited production… de-dollarization is the battlefield。” — via 当各国联合对抗西方：BRICS Development Bank
这用通俗的话来说意味着什么？
当US government支出超过其税收收入时，它必须借钱。
因此，它向institutions和其他countries借钱。However, lenders want a return on investment that beats inflation. And when the government spends more than it collects, it always leads to inflation。
这意味着US借的钱越多，lenders想要的interest rate就越高。
当没有足够的lenders时，US就会向lender of last resort，the Federal Reserve借款，further devaluing the dollar。
有关US实际如何借钱的更多信息，请参阅政府如何借钱。
不要听信媒体
早些时候，我们讨论了Trump的BBB法案如何对traditional energy producers非常有利。
你肯定读过一些文章，称这可能导致oil and gas prices上涨，因为renewables失去了incentives，从而更多地依赖fossil fuels，such as coal and nuclear。
While this will drive demand for fossil fuels, these media outlets have overlooked (or intentionally overlooked, as a way to attack Trump) one important factor: fossil fuels, coal, and nuclear have historically accounted for nearly all of the US’s energy production。
看一看:
但媒体称，BBB法案取消了对wind and solar的incentives，这将推高energy prices。
哦，是吗？
让我们看看事实。
Wind and solar combine to produce a total of just over 2.5 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu)。
While this sounds like a big number, it’s a drop in the bucket compared to every other source。
Despite the decline over the last decade, coal and nuclear production still represent over 20 quadrillion Btu – nearly 10 times more than what Wind and Solar produce。
Last year, U.S. solar and wind production increased by 25% and 8%, respectively, as new generators came online。
That means solar output climbed by about 0.3 quadrillion Btu, while wind output rose by roughly 0.074 quadrillion Btu。
Do you know how much coal production has to increase to match that?
Coal represented 10% of the United States’ total production of 103 quadrillion Btu, so 13 quadrillion Btu。
In order to replace the “significant” gains of wind and solar last year, coal production needs to increase just 2.9%。
So, forget oil and gas – the incentives for coal should be more than enough to balance the scales, offsetting the loss of removed incentives for wind and solar。
In other words, unless there are further tensions in the Middle East, the BBB is unlikely to raise the price of oil and gas。
Now, when you combine lower energy prices with reckless government spending, you have a recipe for one group of stocks to outperform。
Hang tight, we’re almost there。
利率陷阱：美联储的有限选择
The Federal Reserve now finds itself cornered. Raise rates too high, and debt payments spiral out of control. Lower rates and inflation surges again, reducing real yields。
Given the U.S.’s precarious fiscal position, significant hikes seem improbable – this would be a disaster for the US as interest payments skyrocket。
The United States must refinance over $9 trillion of maturing debt in the next twelve months before funding new deficits from the Big Beautiful Bill。
Every quarter-point Fed hike now adds on the order of $70 – 80 billion to the Treasury’s yearly interest tab once fully absorbed, and roughly $20 billion in the very first year, not including spending from the BBB。
That means if Fed chair Jerome Powell raises rates now, it would be financial suicide for Americans, especially given the spending outlined in the BBB。
And while Powell has held off on rate cuts, it seems that a small cut is likely in the near term。
If history is any indication, the one asset class politicians can’t destroy with reckless spending and currency wars is about to climb even higher。
是的，我说的就是黄金。
中央银行再次、再次积累
While publicly dismissing gold, central banks globally have quietly become its largest buyers。
Central bank net purchases have topped over 1,000 tonnes in back-to-back-to-back years, marking it the most buying in the post-Bretton Woods era。
As a result, gold is experiencing severe supply constraints. Mining production has plateaued due to declining ore grades and stringent environmental regulations. ESG requirements have further slowed the development of new mines。
Yet, global demand—driven by central banks and investors—is accelerating。
When demand surges against a constrained supply, prices inevitably rise。
Add in a period of steady or declining rates, and we have a recipe for even higher prices。
When you combine all of this with the BBB’s focus on lowering energy prices, you have an even better recipe for bigger gains。
矿业股票：黄金上涨的杠杆
Historically, mining stocks offer tremendous leverage to rising gold prices. As gold climbs, profit margins for miners expand dramatically。
With gold hovering over $3,300/oz, miners with all-in sustaining costs of $2,000 per ounce enjoy extraordinary profitability。
And if energy prices DO lower as a result of the BBB, these margins could climb even higher。
结论：为未来做准备
Gold isn’t just an investment—it’s insurance against financial and political recklessness。
With trillions more in debt flooding the system, competitive devaluation spiralling globally, and the dollar’s status under siege, gold’s rise seems inevitable。
You have now met it in full: an immutable asset with no counterparty risk, hoarded by the very institutions that publicly dismiss it, and newly empowered by a world rejecting the dollar’s monopoly。
If gold continues the current trend, the capital now hiding in money market funds will scramble for the tiny market cap of precious metal equities. The bid will not fit through the door at once. Early positions—thoughtful, selective, and sized for volatility—may be the only rational response。
If gold merely keeps pace with the expanding global money supply, we believe a $3,500/oz gold price is a conservative estimate. Should confidence break outright, even optimists will look small. In either case, gold mining stocks—leveraged to every tick—are primed to outperform。
Remember: the U.S. must refinance over $9 trillion of maturing Treasuries in the next twelve months, plus the new supply baked into the “Big Beautiful Bill。”
To keep borrowing costs low, the Federal Reserve might secretly start buying lots of these bonds itself, pretending it’s just a small tweak. This yield curve control will be disguised as “balance sheet flexibility,” but it’s really just printing money under the table。
If that happens, the smart money will see right through it and rush to buy gold to protect their money. This will undoubtedly lead to higher gold prices。
相应地保护你的财富。
寻求真相，做好准备，
Carlisle Kane
The Equedia Letter
