Uma Tempestade se Aproxima: O Risco da Grécia Está de Volta

Caros Leitores,

Estamos finalmente prestes a colapsar e queimar?

Toda a ação do mercado de ações de sexta-feira foi decepcionante, apesar de uma série de dados econômicos positivos que, como todos esperávamos, saíram extremamente positivos dias antes da eleição.

De acordo com o último relatório do mercado de trabalho, as folhas de pagamento em outubro expandiram em 171.000 trabalhadores; superando em muito as expectativas de 125.000.

Os números excessivamente positivos me surpreenderam? Nem um pouco.

Nas semanas anteriores (veja Outro Recorde e Uma Controvérsia Global do Ouro), falei sobre como esses números são calculados e manipulados para induzir euforia nos eleitores antes das eleições.

No entanto, mesmo com os números fortes, o mercado estagnou na sexta-feira com a Apple continuando a prejudicar o mercado. Acho que o mercado está começando a entender; os números não nos mostram nada. Isso significa que as boas notícias já estão totalmente precificadas? Se for esse o caso, para onde o mercado está indo?

Uma Tempestade se Aproxima

A eleição dos EUA da próxima semana estará na vanguarda da atividade do mercado. Mas há outras coisas críticas que devemos observar nas próximas semanas: o Fiscal Cliff e o debate sobre o debt ceiling, outro Spain bailout, e o colapso contínuo da Grécia.

Isso mesmo, o risco da Grécia está de volta.

O Risco da Grécia Está de Volta

Duas semanas atrás, o primeiro-ministro grego Antonis Samaras disse que a Grécia ficaria sem dinheiro em 16 de novembro e afirmou ser crucial que uma decisão sobre o envio de mais ajuda à Grécia seja tomada na próxima reunião dos ministros das finanças da zona do euro em 12 de novembro.

Mas antes que a ajuda seja considerada, a Grécia será forçada a votar em controversas reformas trabalhistas exigidas pelos credores da troika da Greece (EU, IMF, ECB), às quais algumas facções do parlamento se opõem estritamente.

Enquanto o ministro das finanças da Greece, Yannis Stouranaras, fez o possível para nos assegurar que estava “razoavelmente confiante” de que a votação seria aprovada, a coalizão governista ainda enfrenta dissidência em suas fileiras.

O estrategista de taxas do Bank of America, Max Leung, escreve:

Na próxima semana, o Parliament votará o austerity and structural reform package para a primeira revisão do new program. O risco de um negative vote é real, já que tanto o PASOK quanto o Democratic Left, o segundo e o terceiro parties na coalition respectivamente, estão ameaçando votar contra o package. Além disso, o Greek debt sustainability e o financing do €20-30bn shortfall no EU/IMF program são issues yet-to-be resolved.

O estrategista do Deutsche Bank, Jim Reid, destaca em sua última nota uma outra complicação introduzida na situação grega na semana passada:

Na Europa, a principal notícia foi que o Greek Court of Auditors vê as pension reforms demanded pela troika como unconstitutional, potencialmente inviabilizando os esforços do government para aprovar seu EU13.5bn austerity package através do parliament na próxima semana… os broader equity markets ignoraram a headline, mas o Athens Composite equity index fechou em queda de 5% no day, e agora está em queda de 13% na week.

De acordo com o estrategista do Societe Generale, Vincent Chaigneau:

Os new budget numbers revelados na Wednesday são somewhat astonishing. O Debt/GDP ratio agora é visto atingindo o peak de 192% em 2014. Compare isso com o IMF’s previous worst-case scenario que tinha um peak de 171%. O IMF não pagará sua share do next tranche a menos que possa ser reassured de que o debt pode return a um sustainable path. Embora o IMF possa estar convinced de que a Greece precisa de two more years (2022) para atingir o 120% target, even that will be a challenge.

O IMF apoia o OSI, ou seja, haircuts em official creditors (mas não no próprio IMF). No entanto, os European governments parecem muito opostos a forgiving debt. O Greek parliament acaba de approved (narrowly) uma law que dará ao government flexibility para privatize public utilities. Speeding up privatisations will help, mas that won’t be enough.

Buybacks dos PSI bonds (€63bn outstanding), juntamente com interest rate reduction e maturity extension em official loans, atualmente parecem a preferred route para reducing o debt load. Mas quem will fund those buybacks? Muito provavelmente, isso will imply new official loans, o que will make a exposure do official sector ao Greek credit risk ever bigger.

Em outras palavras, mais dinheiro será impresso para prolongar o inevitável fim da Grécia.

Até 2016, a dívida da Grécia subiria para 220,4 por cento do GDP em 2016. Em raw figures, os numbers são massive. A dívida já havia shot up para 329.5 billion euros em 2010 e forecasted para reach 411.9 billion euros em 2016.

Como disse o managing director da Pimco, Andrew Bosomworth:

It’s extremely difficult to see any way, any possibility how the country pays back its debt without receiving assistance in the form of debt relief…Greece is insolvent and it’s going to default. It’s just a question of how and when that is realized.

Spain – Outro Bailout?

A Spain ainda está uma mess e eles’re under a impression outro bailout isn’t needed. We’ll see what they say after their big bond auction next week. I see more risk on the table.

Aproximando-se do Fiscal Cliff e Debt Ceiling

Há um mês, os US closed o book no Fiscal 2012 com mais de $16 trillion em debt.

O current debt está agora em 16.229 trillion, e o ceiling em $16.394 trillion. Isso significa que os US têm $165 billion em incremental debt capacity left antes de breaches o federal debt limit.

U.S. Treasury officials expect o government will hit o current debt borrowing limit by the end of this year. But they said they can employ “extraordinary” measures that have been used in the past para keep o government functioning até Congress votes para increase o debt ceiling early next year.

Straying so close ao debt limit – not to mention hitting it – probably would lead a a second downgrade do U.S. credit rating; proven already em January 30, 2012 quando o limit foi raised a um new high de $16.39 de $15.194 trillion set em September 2011.

Não há como os U.S. will be allowed a default. Both Republicans e Democrats know that.

So it’s not a matter de will they raise o debt ceiling; it’s a matter de what it comes with. For example, o opposing party might only vote on o debt ceiling if it is accompanied by major spending cuts e long-term debt reduction; something we witnessed no last debt-ceiling debate.

Como os U.S. will soon breach its debt ceiling, it will add even more urgency a efforts para avoid o upcoming fiscal cliff.

O United States fiscal cliff refere-se a uma large predicted reduction no budget deficit e a uma corresponding projected slowdown da economy if specific laws are allowed a automatically expire or go into effect no beginning de 2013. These laws include tax increases devido a expiration do Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 e as spending reductions (“sequestrations”) under o Budget Control Act of 2011.

If o fiscal cliff isn’t avoided, os adverse effects na economy could push o country back into recession; thus wiping out all dos efforts accomplished (if any) since 2008 e wasting trillions upon trillions de dollars.

Enquanto isso, o U.S. government continues a run record deficits. For o 2012 budget year, o deficit totaled $1.09 trillion, o fourth consecutive year that o deficit has been over $1 trillion.

À medida que nos aproximamos do debt ceiling e fiscal cliff, be prepared once again para extreme volatility. O VIX will probably have its day soon enough.

Quando there’s volatility, investors seek safe haven.

E esse safe haven, para investors e central banks alike, tem sido gold; just as it was during o last debt ceiling debate. This time, however, add in a layer de fiscal cliff.

Ouro e Prata Prestes a Disparar

Gold futures prices lost more than 2% for the week e hit a two-month low na Friday em London; it was o fourth consecutive weekly decline.

O metal agora erased all its gains since o Fed announced QE3.

Mas como mencionei em minha Carta na last week, e em minha Carta no end of September, October is o worst month for gold:

“From a technical perspective, we still have some room to fall before gold moves back up on trend. There are few days before November officially starts and months end can often bring in intermediate lows. The recent drop in gold represents a great buying opportunity; possibly the last optimal intermediate buying opportunity for many months.” October 28, 2012

“September is over and we’re now heading into a month where gold has traditionally not performed as well. We’ve seen gold and silver prices rise over the last few weeks, so it wouldn’t shock me that we see a pullback. October is also generally a more volatile month for both gold and stocks.

Should gold prices follow historical trends for October along with stocks, it would represent a great buying opportunity. Over the past 40 years, November has generally been one of the best months for gold, second only to September.

However, in the last decade, as seen in the (chart below), November has been the best performing month.” September 30, 2012

O mês mais forte para os retornos do Gold nos last 5, 10 years e 30 years é November – e por uma significant margin.

As per Bloomberg’s “Gold Seasonality Table,” o 5 year average (2007-2011) saw returns de 5.6% e o 10 year average (2002-2011) saw returns de 5.1%

November’s strongest gain over o 5 e 10 year period foi o 12.9% gain seen em November 2008 – quando President Obama foi elected.

O que will happen ao gold if Obama gets re-elected next week, November continues a maintain its dominance as o best performing gold month, Greece goes back into o spotlight, Spain asks for outro bailout, followed by o U.S. fiscal cliff e debt ceiling debates?

Você verá em breve…

Ações de Ouro e Prata Devem Subir

Como I had mentioned last month em my letter, Watch the Throne:

“We have seen gold and silver stocks significantly outperform their metal counterparts. This trend should continue. Pullbacks em October represent a major buying opportunity no sector – especially if gold follows o same trend as it has for the last 10 years.” Os gold miners are already beginning a outperform both bullion e o S&P 500 e I expect this trend a continue given favorable fundamentals e seasonality. For the past six months, os silver miners e gold miners have outperformed.

This has been clearly shown em our own Equedia Select portfolio.

Equedia Selects Continuam a Superar o Mercado

Despite a dramatic drop em gold e silver prices last week, every one de our newly covered Equedia Select companies this year have hit new 52-week highs since our initial reports.

Last week, we witnessed great gains from almost all de them.

O mean average gain de all Equedia Select companies initially announced this year is 44% nas Canadian exchanges, e 46% nas American.

Isso significa que o current Equedia Select portfolio está beating o S&P, o Dow, o NASDAQ, o Gold Miners ETF (GDX), e o Gold Juniors ETF (GDXJ), e both gold e silver nas last 52 weeks:

• S&P 500 em alta 12.14%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average em alta 8.71%
• NASDAQ Composite Index em alta 10.53%
• Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) em baixa (28.62%)
• Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) em baixa (19.52%)
• SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) em baixa (5.31%)
• iShares Silver Trust (SLV) em baixa (10.92%)
• Empresas Equedia Select introduzidas este year, em alta 45%

Given os upcoming events das Equedia Select companies e um potential precious metals rally em November, there’s a good chance we could see them climb higher.

Timmins Gold (TSX: TMM) (NYSE MKT: TGD)

A Timmins Gold continues a impress e outperform its peers. Take a look:

Next week, their Q3 earnings are scheduled a be released; as I mentioned em my original report, I expect it a be their best quarter ever – perhaps that’s why buyside demand continues a storm into Timmins.

Last week, Timmins hit a new 52-week high de CDN$3.22 no Canadian side, e US$3.24 no American side em heavily traded volume.

That’s um potential increase de 46% e 42% no share price from my initial report.

Relatório Inicial: Uma Máquina de Fluxo de Caixa: Produção de Ouro Crescente com Potencial Significativo

Preço da Ação no Relatório Inicial:

(TSX: TMM): $2.21

(NYSE MKT: TGD): $2.28

Preço Atual da Ação

(TSX: TMM): $3.00

(NYSE MKT: TGD): $3.01

Ganho Potencial: CDN36%, US32%

Destaque: Nova máxima de 52 semanas de CDN $3,22 e $3,24 estabelecida na last week

MAG Silver (TSX: MAG) (NYSE MKT: MVG)

A MAG Silver also continues a impress, hitting a new 52-week high last week de CDN $13.13 no Canadian exchange, e US$13.18 no American.

That’s um potential increase de 63% no share price from my initial report.

Relatório Inicial: O Projeto de Prata Mais Importante do Mundo

Preço da Ação no Relatório Inicial:

(TSX: MAG): $8.06

(NYSE MKT: MVG): $8.09

Preço Atual da Ação (TSX: MAG): $12.94

(NYSE MKT: MVG): $13.00

Ganho Potencial: 61%

Destaque: Nova máxima de 52 semanas de CDN $13,13 e US $13,18 estabelecida na last week

Corvus Gold (TSX: KOR) (OTCQX: CORVF)

A Corvus Gold also hit a new high, trading as high as CDN$1.70 no Canadian exchange, e US$1.71 no American; settling at CDN $1.57 e US$1.60 respectively.

That’s um potential increase de 25% no share price from my initial report.

Relatório Inicial: O Pacote Completo: Uma Mudança Massiva de Jogo

Preço da Ação no Relatório Inicial:

(TSX: KOR): $1.36

(OTCQX: CORVF): $1.37

Preço Atual da Ação (TSX: KOR): $1.57

(OTCQX: CORVF): $1.60

Ganho Potencial: CDN15%, US17%

Destaque: All time high de CDN $1.70 e US $1.71 estabelecida na last week

Balmoral Resources (TSX.V: BAR) (OTCQX: BALMF)

A Balmoral has had tremendous success over os last few months e many de our subscribers have seen gains de well over 75% since our first report.

Even with os impressive exploration results, a Balmoral has been stuck no $0.94 range, as a result dos 12 million warrants at $0.94 set a expire em November 9. As a result, every time we see a move up higher, those with warrants are likely knocking it back down para some quick gains.

But by the end of next week em November 9, o warrant overhang will be gone e I wouldn’t be surprised a see Balmoral trade higher as result; especially considering that os follow up holes em their recent new discovery e massive uncut hole de 273 g/t (8 oz/ton) Gold Over 3.88 Metres (12.7 Feet) continue a show us phenomenal grades (veja o comunicado de imprensa da last week.)

A Balmoral’s management team continues a hit high grades e their drilling success just doesn`t seem a have an end. I expect that once os warrants expire, we may see higher share prices. Next week may be a last week de accumulation at these levels.

Relatório Inicial: Uma Receita para o Sucesso: Um dos Maiores e Melhores Pacotes de Mineração

Preço da Ação no Relatório Inicial:

(TSX.V: BAR): $0.57

(OTCQX: CORVF): $0.54

Preço Atual da Ação

(TSX.V: BAR): $0.94

(OTCQX: BALMF): $0.95

Ganho Potencial:

CDN 65%, US 76%

Destaque: Highs de CDN$1.10 e US$1.14 since initial report para um potential increase de 93% e 111% no share price.

Supertempestade Sandy

Pela first time em over 100 years, o stock market foi closed for two consecutive days devido a um weather related incident.

Those de you who have yet a see a destruction, estimated at well over $50b, should do a simple Google search: Destruição da Tempestade Sandy

Once you do, you will get a better understanding de what our friends na East Coast are going through. I want a wish everyone na East Coast, e those with friends e family out there, o very best.

Keep in mind that New York state law allows for an extra day de voting if turnout is drastically suppressed because de a natural disaster like Superstorm Sandy. That could potentially postpone state, congressional e even presidential election results beyond Tuesday’s Election Day.

Até a próxima week,

Ivan Lo

Equedia Weekly

Divulgação: I am long gold e silver through ETF’s e bullion, as well as long both major e junior gold e silver companies. We’re biased towards Corvus Gold Inc. because they are an advertiser e we own shares through their most recently announced financing dated October 15, 2012 as well as shares purchased no open market after our initial report, e we own options. We’re biased towards Timmins Gold Corp. because they are an advertiser, we own options, e we own shares. We’re biased towards Balmoral because they are an advertiser e we own shares. We’re biased towards MAG Silver because they are an advertiser e we own shares. You can do the math. Our reputation is built upon as companies we feature. That is why we invest em every company we feature em our Equedia Reports, including Timmins Gold Corp., Balmoral Resources, Corvus Gold, e MAG Silver. It’s your money a invest e we don’t share em your profits or your losses, so please take responsibility for doing your

Furthermore, as management teams at Timmins Gold, Balmoral Resources, MAG Silver, e Corvus Gold have no control over our editorial content e any opinions expressed are those de our own.

We’re not obligated a write a report on any de our advertisers e we’re not obligated a talk about them just because they advertise with us; e we have many advertisers.

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