Gold and Silver Fall After US Inflation Accelerates
September's CPI rise was driven by gasoline. Lower gold and silver futures leave bullion holders weighing rate risk before the Fed meets.
by Corinne Ashdown3 min read
US consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, up from 0.4% in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' October 14 release reported. For those of us holding bullion or mining shares, the faster headline rate gives the Fed fresh inflation evidence to weigh before its next decision.
At 8:04:28 a.m. Central Time on Wednesday, CME's gold page showed December gold futures down 1.15%. At 10:46:58 a.m. Central Time on Wednesday, CME's silver contract table showed December silver futures down 5.84%. These delayed quotes come from different times. They establish lower futures prices during the session, without isolating how much of each decline followed the inflation release. We would avoid treating either snapshot as a closing price or comparing them as simultaneous trades.
Was the acceleration spread across everything you buy? The September BLS report says gasoline prices rose 9.1% and accounted for more than half the monthly headline increase. Prices excluding food and energy rose 0.3%, matching August's monthly pace. The energy surge therefore carried much of the headline acceleration, while the core monthly rate held steady. If you own gold as protection against inflation, this split helps explain why a higher headline reading alone cannot tell you which way bullion prices will move.
The rate risk was already present. In his October 8 speech, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said inflation was too high and that policy would focus on inflation in the near term. His remarks preceded this CPI report; they establish his assessment then, without committing the committee to another increase. As Reuters explained in its October 14 pre-release report, higher rates tend to reduce the appeal of gold that pays no income. That is the transmission we discussed in Gold and Silver Lose Ground as Yields Rise: stronger inflation can support a hedge case while the prospect of tighter policy raises the income available elsewhere.
For your mining shares, a recovery in selling prices could widen margins if costs hold. The risk runs the other way when bullion prices weaken while operating expenses remain firm. September's consumer gasoline index gives us no producer's fuel bill, and today's futures quotes give us no quarter's realised selling price. We would compare the producer's reported prices with its unit costs before treating a bullion rebound as earnings growth. Agnico Eagle, AEM on the NYSE and TSX, said on September 28 that its next results arrive after trading on October 28, giving shareholders a dated check on that spread.
We will watch whether the Fed's October 27 and 28 meeting produces further tightening, then compare the miners' reported margins as earnings arrive.
Seek the truth and be prepared,
Equedia News
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026, released October 14
- CME Group, Gold futures overview, October 14, 2026, 8:04:28 a.m. Central Time
- CME Group, Silver futures quotes, December contract updated October 14, 2026, 10:46:58 a.m. Central Time
- Federal Reserve, Christopher Waller's speech, October 8, 2026
- Reuters, Gold down for third straight session as markets await US inflation data, October 14, 2026, pre-release version
- Equedia News, Gold and Silver Lose Ground as Yields Rise, September 25, 2026
- Agnico Eagle, Notice of third-quarter results and conference call, September 28, 2026
- Federal Reserve, FOMC meeting calendar, reviewed October 14, 2026
Disclaimer: This letter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past predictions and performance are not indicative of future results. We own gold and gold stocks. Please see our full terms of use and disclaimer at equedia.com.
